Analysis of China O&G Activity Released in the 2nd Edition of PumpingIQ China

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PacWest released the second edition of PumpingIQ China, which is the most comprehensive market intelligence product to-date, providing a detailed bottoms-up analysis of China’s oil & gas market and an assessment of unconventional activity and prospects. The report includes frac capacity additions and utilization, by operator/region, forecast through 2015, and well counts forecast to 2015 (by region, horizontal/vertical,

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frac’ed).

PacWest is excited about the launch of this report as it contains new analyses on the impact of the macro environment on China O&G activity, including:

  • Detailed discussion of impact of anti-corruption activities on Chinese frac market activity, by play, including forecasts
  • More comprehensive analysis of policy and political landscape, including detailed analysis of alternatives (LNG, pipeline imports, coal-to-gas, CBM)
  • Detailed examination of current frac’ed / horizontal well costs and pricing versus alternatives
  • Updates to shale geology and CBM analysis
  • Cost reduction strategies and oilfield services opportunities

For more information please contact, Rob Liou at rliou@pacwestcp.com

PacWest Research Details Significant Growth in Shale Play Activity

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Rigzone and Shale Play Water Management articles share data from PacWest’s recent WellIQ report for 2014Q2. Both articles include the forecasts for US land growth. The August 29th Rigzone article explains:

According to PacWest’s WellIQ data, four formations – the Bakken in North Dakota, the DJ Basin in Colorado and Wyoming, and the Permian and Eagle Ford

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in Texas – will account for just over three/quarters of the growth in horizontally fracked stages.

The Marcellus/Utica is expected to have 15 percent compounded growth, while Eagle Ford and the Bakken are projected by PacWest to grow by 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

Moreover, the total number of wells is forecast to decrease by less than 1% in 2014, due to a significant decrease in D&C activity directed towards VT/DR wells.

WellIQ graph-Wells frac'ed - stages

Sources: PacWest Analysis, RigData

And Shale Play Water Management also shares that although 2014 will have a slight decrease, the number of wells drilled in 2014 should surpass 2013 levels by 6%, while the number of horizontally drilled wells is expected to increase by 9%. Horizontally frac’ed stages are expected to increase by almost 20%.

full articles at https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/134779/PacWest_Considerable_Growth_Expected_for_US_Shale_Formations

and in http://www.shaleplaywatermanagement.com/2014/09/pacwest-considerable-growth-expected-us-shale-formations/

 

 

 

PacWest’s WellIQ Report and Activity in the Bakken

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PacWest Consulting’s WellIQ report cited in the Bakken Magazine last week on activity in the Bakken.

Christopher Robart explained that in order to fully grasp the level of drilling and completion activity—and the need for services related to either activity—Robart and his team focus on new horizontally fracked wells in combination with the number of frack stages per well. “More stages equals more demand for hydraulic services and more pumping time needed per well.”

“The next several years are forecast to be strong for most all oilfield services and equipment players; however, the challenge will be within the supply chain,” he said in an announcement of the WellIQ report. “The winners will be the companies who can manage the logistics and risks around having the right personnel, services, materials and equipment at the right place, when it is needed on-site

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by their E&P customers.”

Read the full article by Luke Geiver at http://www.thebakken.com/articles/772/pacwest-releases-oilfield-barometer-on-north-american-shale-plays

PacWest Market Update 2014Q2 Conference Call Playback

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PacWest Market Update Conference Call for 2014Q2

PacWest

hosted an open call on the hydraulic fracturing market on August 28th, 2014 at 9:30am Central Time.

You can download the audio from the call here: PacWest Market Update 14Q2

For questions or information on our latest WellIQ 0r PumpingIQ release, please contact Jennifer Thomas, jthomas@pacwestcp.com, 713 929 3285

PacWest Market Update Conference Call August 28th

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Frac is Back: Robust D&C Activity is Heating up the Frac Market in North America

Our 14Q2 release of PumpingIQ report, just published on August 15, 2014, provides an in-depth analysis and set of forecasts for the North American and International frac markets. We forecast strong market growth in the North American market for hydraulic fracturing services through 2016 due to robust drilling and completion (D&C) activity, with frac pricing increases expected through 2015. Tightening market conditions are resulting in supply chain constraints in key growth plays. Constraints in the availability of frac sand and the logistics capacity to transport the frac sand are leading to cost escalation and work delays.

D&C activity is robust in both the US Land and Canadian markets, with HZ wells frac’ed increasing 9% in 2014 and HZ frac stages increasing by 19%. In the US Land market, significant growth in key plays – the Permian, DJ Basin, Utica – and continued growth in the Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Bakken is driving growth across all D&C activity metrics, including rig count, well spuds, wells frac’ed, and frac stages. In the Canadian market, strong growth in the Montney and Duvernay plays, in addition to growth in the Cardium and Deep Basin, is driving increases in D&C activity.

According to Managing Partner, Nilesh Dayal, “Rapidly tightening market conditions have resulted in price increases for many E&Ps. After more than 3 years of pricing pressure in the frac market, the dam has finally broken for pricing, and service providers are finally having success in negotiating higher pricing.”

While market conditions are driving price increases, costs recovery on key consumables, including sand and chemicals are driving a large part of the increases. North American frac sand demand is expected to increase by nearly 30% in 2014, compared to 2013. This has resulted in logistics constraints in both rail and trucking capacity and price increases across the sand value chain.

However, not all pumpers are consistently benefiting from price increases. Chris Robart, Partner notes that, “There has been wide variance in price increases across pumpers/customers, with some reporting price increases as high as 20% in key growth plays where market conditions are most tight. However, price negotiations will continue to be on-going and in many cases higher prices will not be implemented until late 2014.”

Given the evolving demand landscape and operational requirements, including aging fleets, continuous pumping operations, and increased refurbishment activity, we have begun analyzing the frac market in terms of “Marketed Capacity” and “Effective Utilization.” Our analysis reveals that utilization is quickly improving, and estimates that raw utilization is 84% in 14Q3, while effective utilization is 90%, with higher rates in key growth plays.

In response to increased demand, pumpers have upgraded 2014 newbuild programs and have begun committing to sizable 2015 newbuild programs, with 1.4 million HHP in net capacity additions estimated for 2014 and 1.6 million HHP in 2015. “While capacity additions may allow some pumpers to secure more work, it will be supply chain execution and delivery that will make or break their bottom lines,” adds Mr. Dayal.

We will hold a conference call on Thursday August 28, 2014 at 9:30am CST to discuss these and other views on the market. Call details are provided below. The call is open to the public.

Conference Call:

Dial-in: +1 (800) 830 3581

International Dial-in: (262) 320 4698

Passcode: 2922791

Presentation Link:

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https://join.me/PacWest_Market_Update

 

For more information, contact Jennifer Thomas, 713.929.3285, jthomas@pacwestcp.com.

 

 

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